São José EC U20 1–1 Pinda U20: Result & Stats

São José EC U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Pinda U20

Petterson 17'

Matheus Nunes 27'

6/14/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Dr. Mário Martins Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

São José EC U2017%

×Draw18%

Pinda U2066%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São José EC U20Expected goals in this matchPinda U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

2.56

São José EC U20

1.23

Pinda U20

2.56

Pinda U20 creates 108% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

1.25

creates per match

3.20

1.92

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

São José EC U20

1.25

Pinda U20

3.20

allows per match

São José EC U20

1.92

Pinda U20

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São José EC U20+0.00on par

Pinda U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São José EC U20 ↓

Pinda U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

São José EC U20 or draw

34%

São José EC U20 or Pinda U20

82%

Draw or Pinda U20

83%

Winning margin

São José EC U20 wins by 2+

6%

Pinda U20 wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

São José EC U20 1+ goals

71%

São José EC U20 2+ goals

35%

São José EC U20 3+ goals

13%

Pinda U20 1+ goals

92%

Pinda U20 2+ goals

72%

Pinda U20 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

São José EC U20 (draw refunded)

20%

Pinda U20 (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São José EC U20 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Pinda U20 away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São José EC U20 attack 1.25 + Pinda U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Pinda U20 attack 3.20 + São José EC U20 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

São José EC U20 scores more

17%

level

18%

Pinda U20 scores more

66%

Pinda U20 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Pinda U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Petterson

27'

Matheus Nunes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff