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Pinda U20 vs São José EC U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Pinda U20
Pinda U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
São José EC U20
São José EC U20
Isaac 90'
S. Henrique 38'
5/10/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Centro Esportivo José Ely de Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pinda U2054%
×Draw23%
São José EC U2024%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pinda U20
1.88
São José EC U20
1.17

Pinda U20 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Pinda U20
1.60
São José EC U20
1.15

allows per match

Pinda U20
1.20
São José EC U20
2.15

finishing

Pinda U20+0.00on par
São José EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pinda U20 ↓

São José EC U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Pinda U20 or draw
76%
Pinda U20 or São José EC U20
77%
Draw or São José EC U20
46%

Winning margin

Pinda U20 wins by 2+
31%
São José EC U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pinda U20 1+ goals
85%
Pinda U20 2+ goals
56%
Pinda U20 3+ goals
29%
São José EC U20 1+ goals
69%
São José EC U20 2+ goals
33%
São José EC U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pinda U20 (draw refunded)
70%
São José EC U20 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pinda U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

São José EC U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pinda U20 attack 1.60 + São José EC U20 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.88

São José EC U20 attack 1.15 + Pinda U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Pinda U20 scores more
54%
level
23%
São José EC U20 scores more
24%

Pinda U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Pinda U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
S. Henrique
90'
Isaac

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Pinda U20 0–2 São José EC U20

São José EC U20 beat Pinda U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 10, 2024.

Goals: S. Henrique (38'), Isaac (90').

The match was played at Centro Esportivo José Ely de Miranda in Pindamonhangaba, São Paulo.