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São José EC U20 vs CA Joseense U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São José EC U20
São José EC U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
CA Joseense U20
CA Joseense U20
Felipe 90+2'
Petterson 26'
G. Filho 90+6'
Ikaro 45+3'
5/24/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Centro Esportivo José Ely de Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

São José EC U2040%
×Draw23%
CA Joseense U2037%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São José EC U20
1.73
CA Joseense U20
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

São José EC U20
1.25
CA Joseense U20
1.40

allows per match

São José EC U20
1.92
CA Joseense U20
2.20

finishing

São José EC U20+0.00on par
CA Joseense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 67No: 3367%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São José EC U20 ↓

CA Joseense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

São José EC U20 or draw
63%
São José EC U20 or CA Joseense U20
77%
Draw or CA Joseense U20
60%

Winning margin

São José EC U20 wins by 2+
21%
CA Joseense U20 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

São José EC U20 1+ goals
82%
São José EC U20 2+ goals
52%
São José EC U20 3+ goals
25%
CA Joseense U20 1+ goals
81%
CA Joseense U20 2+ goals
49%
CA Joseense U20 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

São José EC U20 (draw refunded)
52%
CA Joseense U20 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São José EC U20 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

CA Joseense U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São José EC U20 attack 1.25 + CA Joseense U20 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.73

CA Joseense U20 attack 1.40 + São José EC U20 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

São José EC U20 scores more
40%
level
23%
CA Joseense U20 scores more
37%

São José EC U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "São José EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
Petterson
45+3'
Ikaro
49'
F. J. Adenilson
90+2'
Felipe
90+6'
G. Filho

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: São José EC U20 2–2 CA Joseense U20

São José EC U20 and CA Joseense U20 drew 2-2 in Paulista - U20 on May 24, 2024.

Goals: Petterson (26'), Ikaro (45+3'), Felipe (90+2'), G. Filho (90+6').

The match was played at Centro Esportivo José Ely de Miranda in Pindamonhangaba, São Paulo.