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CA Joseense U20 vs São José EC U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

CA Joseense U20
CA Joseense U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
São José EC U20
São José EC U20
Unknown 64', 11'
Unknown 77', 23'
4/19/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Centro Esportivo João do Pulo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CA Joseense U2057%
×Draw19%
São José EC U2024%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Joseense U20
2.47
São José EC U20
1.57

CA Joseense U20 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

CA Joseense U20
2.80
São José EC U20
1.15

allows per match

CA Joseense U20
2.00
São José EC U20
2.15

finishing

CA Joseense U20+0.00on par
São José EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 76Under: 2476%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 72No: 2872%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Joseense U20 ↓

São José EC U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

CA Joseense U20 or draw
76%
CA Joseense U20 or São José EC U20
81%
Draw or São José EC U20
43%

Winning margin

CA Joseense U20 wins by 2+
36%
São José EC U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CA Joseense U20 1+ goals
91%
CA Joseense U20 2+ goals
70%
CA Joseense U20 3+ goals
44%
São José EC U20 1+ goals
79%
São José EC U20 2+ goals
46%
São José EC U20 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

CA Joseense U20 (draw refunded)
70%
São José EC U20 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Joseense U20 at home — creates 2.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

São José EC U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Joseense U20 attack 2.80 + São José EC U20 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.47

São José EC U20 attack 1.15 + CA Joseense U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

CA Joseense U20 scores more
57%
level
19%
São José EC U20 scores more
24%

CA Joseense U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "CA Joseense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
23'
64'
77'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: CA Joseense U20 2–2 São José EC U20

CA Joseense U20 and São José EC U20 drew 2-2 in Paulista - U20 on April 19, 2024.

Goals: ? (11', 23', 64', 77').

The match was played at Centro Esportivo João do Pulo in São José dos Campos, São Paulo.