Sao Francisco W 0–0 Corinthians W: Result & Stats

Sao Francisco W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Corinthians W

8/22/2018

Brasileiro Women · GROUP A - Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sao Francisco W14%

×Draw20%

Corinthians W66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao Francisco WExpected goals in this matchCorinthians W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

2.05

Sao Francisco W

0.83

Corinthians W

2.05

Corinthians W creates 147% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 80 away

0.86

creates per match

2.46

1.64

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Sao Francisco W

0.86

Corinthians W

2.46

allows per match

Sao Francisco W

1.64

Corinthians W

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Francisco W+0.00on par

Corinthians W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Francisco W ↓

Corinthians W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sao Francisco W or draw

34%

Sao Francisco W or Corinthians W

80%

Draw or Corinthians W

86%

Winning margin

Sao Francisco W wins by 2+

4%

Corinthians W wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Sao Francisco W 1+ goals

56%

Sao Francisco W 2+ goals

20%

Sao Francisco W 3+ goals

5%

Corinthians W 1+ goals

87%

Corinthians W 2+ goals

61%

Corinthians W 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Sao Francisco W (draw refunded)

18%

Corinthians W (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Francisco W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Corinthians W away — creates 2.46, concedes 0.80 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Francisco W attack 0.86 + Corinthians W defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Corinthians W attack 2.46 + Sao Francisco W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sao Francisco W scores more

14%

level

20%

Corinthians W scores more

66%

Corinthians W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Corinthians W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff