Corinthians W 4–1 Sao Francisco W: Result & Stats

Corinthians W

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Sao Francisco W

4/25/2018

Brasileiro Women · GROUP A - Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Corinthians W88%

×Draw8%

Sao Francisco W3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Corinthians WExpected goals in this matchSao Francisco W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.40

0.58

Corinthians W

3.40

Sao Francisco W

0.58

Corinthians W creates 486% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 15 away

3.01

creates per match

0.53

0.63

allows per match

3.80

creates per match

Corinthians W

3.01

Sao Francisco W

0.53

allows per match

Corinthians W

0.63

Sao Francisco W

3.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Corinthians W+0.00on par

Sao Francisco W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians W ↓

Sao Francisco W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–18%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–011%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Corinthians W or draw

97%

Corinthians W or Sao Francisco W

92%

Draw or Sao Francisco W

12%

Winning margin

Corinthians W wins by 2+

72%

Sao Francisco W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Corinthians W 1+ goals

96%

Corinthians W 2+ goals

84%

Corinthians W 3+ goals

64%

Sao Francisco W 1+ goals

44%

Sao Francisco W 2+ goals

12%

Sao Francisco W 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Corinthians W (draw refunded)

96%

Sao Francisco W (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians W at home — creates 3.01, concedes 0.63 · 87 matches

Sao Francisco W away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians W attack 3.01 + Sao Francisco W defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 3.40

Sao Francisco W attack 0.53 + Corinthians W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Corinthians W scores more

88%

level

8%

Sao Francisco W scores more

3%

Corinthians W at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Corinthians W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff