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São Francisco vs Humaitá — League #520 2026

São Francisco
São Francisco
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Humaitá
Humaitá
Denilson 9'
A. Soares 37'
4/10/2024League #520League #520 · 2nd Phase - 1Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

São Francisco15%
×Draw19%
Humaitá66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Francisco
0.99
Humaitá
2.26

Humaitá creates 128% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 22 away

creates per match

São Francisco
0.80
Humaitá
2.23

allows per match

São Francisco
2.30
Humaitá
1.18

finishing

São Francisco+0.00on par
Humaitá+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Francisco ↓

Humaitá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

São Francisco or draw
34%
São Francisco or Humaitá
81%
Draw or Humaitá
85%

Winning margin

São Francisco wins by 2+
5%
Humaitá wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

São Francisco 1+ goals
63%
São Francisco 2+ goals
26%
São Francisco 3+ goals
8%
Humaitá 1+ goals
89%
Humaitá 2+ goals
66%
Humaitá 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

São Francisco (draw refunded)
19%
Humaitá (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Francisco at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

Humaitá away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Francisco attack 0.80 + Humaitá defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.99

Humaitá attack 2.23 + São Francisco defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

São Francisco scores more
15%
level
19%
Humaitá scores more
66%

Humaitá at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Humaitá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Denilson
37'
A. Soares

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São Francisco vs Humaitá

São Francisco and Humaitá drew 1-1 in League #520 on April 10, 2024.

Goals: Denilson (9'), A. Soares (37').

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes in Rio Branco, Acre.