Humaitá 7–0 São Francisco: Result & Stats

Humaitá

FT

7 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

São Francisco

Thon 77', 24', 10', 8'

Aldair 58', 31'

Alexandro 56'

2/24/2026

League #520 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Humaitá70%

×Draw18%

São Francisco12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HumaitáExpected goals in this matchSão Francisco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.83

Humaitá

2.29

São Francisco

0.83

Humaitá creates 176% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 9 away

2.14

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Humaitá

2.14

São Francisco

0.67

allows per match

Humaitá

1.00

São Francisco

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Humaitá+0.00on par

São Francisco+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humaitá ↓

São Francisco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Humaitá or draw

88%

Humaitá or São Francisco

82%

Draw or São Francisco

30%

Winning margin

Humaitá wins by 2+

46%

São Francisco wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Humaitá 1+ goals

90%

Humaitá 2+ goals

66%

Humaitá 3+ goals

40%

São Francisco 1+ goals

56%

São Francisco 2+ goals

20%

São Francisco 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Humaitá (draw refunded)

85%

São Francisco (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humaitá at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

São Francisco away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humaitá attack 2.14 + São Francisco defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.29

São Francisco attack 0.67 + Humaitá defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Humaitá scores more

70%

level

18%

São Francisco scores more

12%

Humaitá at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Humaitá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Thon

10'

Thon

24'

Thon

31'

Aldair

56'

Alexandro

58'

Aldair

77'

Thon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff