Sao Domingos AL 2–6 Aliança AL: Result & Stats

Sao Domingos AL

FT

2 – 6

HT: 0 – 4

Aliança AL

Unknown 71', 69'

Unknown 82', 76', 39', 12', 8', 3'

4/26/2026

Alagoano - 2 · Group Stage - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sao Domingos AL16%

×Draw20%

Aliança AL64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao Domingos ALExpected goals in this matchAliança AL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

2.21

Sao Domingos AL

1.02

Aliança AL

2.21

Aliança AL creates 117% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

0.50

creates per match

0.91

3.50

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Sao Domingos AL

0.50

Aliança AL

0.91

allows per match

Sao Domingos AL

3.50

Aliança AL

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Domingos AL+0.00on par

Aliança AL+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Domingos AL ↓

Aliança AL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sao Domingos AL or draw

36%

Sao Domingos AL or Aliança AL

80%

Draw or Aliança AL

84%

Winning margin

Sao Domingos AL wins by 2+

6%

Aliança AL wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Sao Domingos AL 1+ goals

64%

Sao Domingos AL 2+ goals

27%

Sao Domingos AL 3+ goals

8%

Aliança AL 1+ goals

89%

Aliança AL 2+ goals

65%

Aliança AL 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Sao Domingos AL (draw refunded)

20%

Aliança AL (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Domingos AL at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

Aliança AL away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Domingos AL attack 0.50 + Aliança AL defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.02

Aliança AL attack 0.91 + Sao Domingos AL defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sao Domingos AL scores more

16%

level

20%

Aliança AL scores more

64%

Aliança AL at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Aliança AL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

8'

12'

39'

69'

71'

76'

82'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff