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Aliança AL vs Sao Domingos AL — Alagoano - 2 2024

Aliança AL
Aliança AL
FT
2 – 1
Sao Domingos AL
Sao Domingos AL
9/14/2024Alagoano - 2Alagoano - 2 · 1st Phase - 2Campo de Futebol Tadeuzão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Aliança AL82%
×Draw12%
Sao Domingos AL6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aliança AL
2.85
Sao Domingos AL
0.65

Aliança AL creates 338% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

Aliança AL
2.08
Sao Domingos AL
0.13

allows per match

Aliança AL
1.17
Sao Domingos AL
3.63

finishing

Aliança AL+0.00on par
Sao Domingos AL+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aliança AL ↓

Sao Domingos AL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Aliança AL or draw
94%
Aliança AL or Sao Domingos AL
88%
Draw or Sao Domingos AL
18%

Winning margin

Aliança AL wins by 2+
62%
Sao Domingos AL wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Aliança AL 1+ goals
94%
Aliança AL 2+ goals
77%
Aliança AL 3+ goals
53%
Sao Domingos AL 1+ goals
48%
Sao Domingos AL 2+ goals
14%
Sao Domingos AL 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Aliança AL (draw refunded)
93%
Sao Domingos AL (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aliança AL at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Sao Domingos AL away — creates 0.13, concedes 3.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aliança AL attack 2.08 + Sao Domingos AL defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.85

Sao Domingos AL attack 0.13 + Aliança AL defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Aliança AL scores more
82%
level
12%
Sao Domingos AL scores more
6%

Aliança AL at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Aliança AL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alagoano - 2: Aliança AL 2–1 Sao Domingos AL

Aliança AL beat Sao Domingos AL 2-1 in Alagoano - 2 on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Futebol Tadeuzão in Barra de Santo Antônio, Alagoas.