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Sao Carlos vs Guarulhos — Paulista Série B 2026

Sao Carlos
Sao Carlos
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Guarulhos
Guarulhos
Ismael 51'
Dezin 49'
Unknown 90+5'
J. Bernardes 25'
6/6/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Prof. Luís Augusto de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sao Carlos51%
×Draw22%
Guarulhos27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Carlos
1.95
Guarulhos
1.36

Sao Carlos creates 43% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sao Carlos
2.06
Guarulhos
1.83

allows per match

Sao Carlos
0.89
Guarulhos
1.83

finishing

Sao Carlos+0.00on par
Guarulhos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 64Under: 3664%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Carlos ↓

Guarulhos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sao Carlos or draw
73%
Sao Carlos or Guarulhos
78%
Draw or Guarulhos
49%

Winning margin

Sao Carlos wins by 2+
29%
Guarulhos wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sao Carlos 1+ goals
86%
Sao Carlos 2+ goals
58%
Sao Carlos 3+ goals
31%
Guarulhos 1+ goals
74%
Guarulhos 2+ goals
39%
Guarulhos 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sao Carlos (draw refunded)
66%
Guarulhos (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Carlos at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Guarulhos away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Carlos attack 2.06 + Guarulhos defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.95

Guarulhos attack 1.83 + Sao Carlos defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sao Carlos scores more
51%
level
22%
Guarulhos scores more
27%

Sao Carlos at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sao Carlos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
J. Bernardes
39'
K. Silva
49'
Dezin
51'
Ismael
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Sao Carlos 2–2 Guarulhos

Sao Carlos and Guarulhos drew 2-2 in Paulista Série B on June 6, 2025.

Goals: J. Bernardes (25'), Dezin (49'), Ismael (51'), ? (90+5').

The match was played at Estádio Prof. Luís Augusto de Oliveira in São Carlos, São Paulo.