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Guarulhos vs Sao Carlos — Paulista Série B 2026

Guarulhos
Guarulhos
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sao Carlos
Sao Carlos
5/4/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Guarulhos48%
×Draw27%
Sao Carlos25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarulhos
1.39
Sao Carlos
0.93

Guarulhos creates 49% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

creates per match

Guarulhos
1.33
Sao Carlos
0.61

allows per match

Guarulhos
1.25
Sao Carlos
1.44

finishing

Guarulhos+0.00on par
Sao Carlos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarulhos ↓

Sao Carlos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guarulhos or draw
75%
Guarulhos or Sao Carlos
73%
Draw or Sao Carlos
52%

Winning margin

Guarulhos wins by 2+
23%
Sao Carlos wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guarulhos 1+ goals
75%
Guarulhos 2+ goals
40%
Guarulhos 3+ goals
16%
Sao Carlos 1+ goals
61%
Sao Carlos 2+ goals
24%
Sao Carlos 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Guarulhos (draw refunded)
65%
Sao Carlos (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarulhos at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Sao Carlos away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarulhos attack 1.33 + Sao Carlos defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sao Carlos attack 0.61 + Guarulhos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Guarulhos scores more
48%
level
27%
Sao Carlos scores more
25%

Guarulhos at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Guarulhos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Guarulhos 2–0 Sao Carlos

Guarulhos beat Sao Carlos 2-0 in Paulista Série B on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira in Guarulhos, São Paulo.