Sao Carlos 8–0 Grêmio Catanduvense: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao CarlosExpected goals in this matchGrêmio Catanduvense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.63

0.65

Sao Carlos

4.63

Grêmio Catanduvense

0.65

Sao Carlos creates 612% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

2.06

creates per match

0.40

0.89

allows per match

7.20

creates per match

Sao Carlos

2.06

Grêmio Catanduvense

0.40

allows per match

Sao Carlos

0.89

Grêmio Catanduvense

7.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Carlos+0.00on par

Grêmio Catanduvense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Carlos ↓

Grêmio Catanduvense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–012%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (12%) · grid covers 62% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Sao Carlos or draw

98%

Sao Carlos or Grêmio Catanduvense

96%

Draw or Grêmio Catanduvense

6%

Winning margin

Sao Carlos wins by 2+

84%

Grêmio Catanduvense wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Sao Carlos 1+ goals

99%

Sao Carlos 2+ goals

93%

Sao Carlos 3+ goals

80%

Grêmio Catanduvense 1+ goals

48%

Grêmio Catanduvense 2+ goals

14%

Grêmio Catanduvense 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sao Carlos (draw refunded)

98%

Grêmio Catanduvense (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Carlos at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Grêmio Catanduvense away — creates 0.40, concedes 7.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Carlos attack 2.06 + Grêmio Catanduvense defence 7.20 → ÷2 → 4.63

Grêmio Catanduvense attack 0.40 + Sao Carlos defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Sao Carlos scores more

94%

level

4%

Grêmio Catanduvense scores more

2%

Sao Carlos at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Sao Carlos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

K. Silva

27'

Kelvyn

37'

Ismael

60'

T. Jose Moura do Vale

63'

D. Alves

68'

Gabryel

87'

88'

David

89'

Missed penalty

90'

Kleber

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff