Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Grêmio Catanduvense vs Sao Carlos — Paulista Série B 2026

Grêmio Catanduvense
Grêmio Catanduvense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sao Carlos
Sao Carlos
V. Sangiorgi 65' (pen)
Dudu Black 41'
Andre 36'
4/26/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Grêmio Catanduvense7%
×Draw11%
Sao Carlos82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grêmio Catanduvense
0.92
Sao Carlos
3.31

Sao Carlos creates 260% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

creates per match

Grêmio Catanduvense
0.40
Sao Carlos
0.61

allows per match

Grêmio Catanduvense
6.00
Sao Carlos
1.44

finishing

Grêmio Catanduvense+0.00on par
Sao Carlos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 78Under: 2278%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grêmio Catanduvense ↓

Sao Carlos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–28%
0–39%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Grêmio Catanduvense or draw
18%
Grêmio Catanduvense or Sao Carlos
89%
Draw or Sao Carlos
93%

Winning margin

Grêmio Catanduvense wins by 2+
2%
Sao Carlos wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

Grêmio Catanduvense 1+ goals
60%
Grêmio Catanduvense 2+ goals
23%
Grêmio Catanduvense 3+ goals
7%
Sao Carlos 1+ goals
96%
Sao Carlos 2+ goals
83%
Sao Carlos 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

Grêmio Catanduvense (draw refunded)
8%
Sao Carlos (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grêmio Catanduvense at home — creates 0.40, concedes 6.00 · 5 matches

Sao Carlos away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grêmio Catanduvense attack 0.40 + Sao Carlos defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 0.92

Sao Carlos attack 0.61 + Grêmio Catanduvense defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 3.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Grêmio Catanduvense scores more
7%
level
11%
Sao Carlos scores more
82%

Sao Carlos at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Sao Carlos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
Andre
41'
Dudu Black
65'
V. SangiorgiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Grêmio Catanduvense 1–2 Sao Carlos

Sao Carlos beat Grêmio Catanduvense 2-1 in Paulista Série B on April 26, 2026.

Goals: Andre (36'), Dudu Black (41'), V. Sangiorgi (65' pen).