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Sao Carlos vs Flamengo SP — Paulista Série B 2026

Sao Carlos
Sao Carlos
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Flamengo SP
Flamengo SP
K. Silva 69'
K. Claro 46'
Gledson 61'
Luiz Felipe 50'
5/22/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Prof. Luís Augusto de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sao Carlos46%
×Draw26%
Flamengo SP29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Carlos
1.50
Flamengo SP
1.13

Sao Carlos creates 33% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sao Carlos
2.06
Flamengo SP
1.37

allows per match

Sao Carlos
0.89
Flamengo SP
0.95

finishing

Sao Carlos+0.00on par
Flamengo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Carlos ↓

Flamengo SP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sao Carlos or draw
71%
Sao Carlos or Flamengo SP
74%
Draw or Flamengo SP
54%

Winning margin

Sao Carlos wins by 2+
23%
Flamengo SP wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sao Carlos 1+ goals
78%
Sao Carlos 2+ goals
44%
Sao Carlos 3+ goals
19%
Flamengo SP 1+ goals
68%
Flamengo SP 2+ goals
31%
Flamengo SP 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sao Carlos (draw refunded)
62%
Flamengo SP (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Carlos at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Flamengo SP away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Carlos attack 2.06 + Flamengo SP defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.50

Flamengo SP attack 1.37 + Sao Carlos defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sao Carlos scores more
46%
level
26%
Flamengo SP scores more
29%

Sao Carlos at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sao Carlos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
K. Claro
50'
Luiz Felipe
61'
Gledson
69'
K. Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Sao Carlos 2–2 Flamengo SP

Sao Carlos and Flamengo SP drew 2-2 in Paulista Série B on May 22, 2025.

Goals: K. Claro (46'), Luiz Felipe (50'), Gledson (61'), K. Silva (69').

The match was played at Estádio Prof. Luís Augusto de Oliveira in São Carlos, São Paulo.