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Flamengo SP vs Sao Carlos — Paulista Série B 2026

Flamengo SP
Flamengo SP
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sao Carlos
Sao Carlos
Unknown 60'
Unknown 90+5'
Flavio 2' (OG)
6/8/2024Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Flamengo SP57%
×Draw25%
Sao Carlos18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo SP
1.59
Sao Carlos
0.75

Flamengo SP creates 112% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Flamengo SP
1.74
Sao Carlos
0.61

allows per match

Flamengo SP
0.89
Sao Carlos
1.44

finishing

Flamengo SP+0.00on par
Sao Carlos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 58Yes: 4258%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo SP ↓

Sao Carlos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Flamengo SP or draw
82%
Flamengo SP or Sao Carlos
75%
Draw or Sao Carlos
43%

Winning margin

Flamengo SP wins by 2+
31%
Sao Carlos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Flamengo SP 1+ goals
80%
Flamengo SP 2+ goals
47%
Flamengo SP 3+ goals
21%
Sao Carlos 1+ goals
53%
Sao Carlos 2+ goals
17%
Sao Carlos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Flamengo SP (draw refunded)
77%
Sao Carlos (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo SP at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Sao Carlos away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo SP attack 1.74 + Sao Carlos defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sao Carlos attack 0.61 + Flamengo SP defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Flamengo SP scores more
57%
level
25%
Sao Carlos scores more
18%

Flamengo SP at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Flamengo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
FlavioOwn goal
60'
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamengo SP vs Sao Carlos

Sao Carlos beat Flamengo SP 2-1 in Paulista Série B on June 8, 2024.

Goals: Flavio (2' o.g.), ? (60', 90+5').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antônio Soares de Oliveira in Guarulhos, São Paulo.