Sao Carlos 1–1 Colorado Caieiras: Result & Stats

Sao Carlos

FT

1 – 1

Colorado Caieiras

6/1/2024

Paulista Série B · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Prof. Luís Augusto de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sao Carlos55%

×Draw25%

Colorado Caieiras20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao CarlosExpected goals in this matchColorado Caieiras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.84

Sao Carlos

1.58

Colorado Caieiras

0.84

Sao Carlos creates 88% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

2.06

creates per match

0.80

0.89

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Sao Carlos

2.06

Colorado Caieiras

0.80

allows per match

Sao Carlos

0.89

Colorado Caieiras

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Carlos+0.00on par

Colorado Caieiras+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Carlos ↓

Colorado Caieiras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sao Carlos or draw

80%

Sao Carlos or Colorado Caieiras

75%

Draw or Colorado Caieiras

45%

Winning margin

Sao Carlos wins by 2+

29%

Colorado Caieiras wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sao Carlos 1+ goals

79%

Sao Carlos 2+ goals

47%

Sao Carlos 3+ goals

21%

Colorado Caieiras 1+ goals

57%

Colorado Caieiras 2+ goals

21%

Colorado Caieiras 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sao Carlos (draw refunded)

73%

Colorado Caieiras (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Carlos at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Colorado Caieiras away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Carlos attack 2.06 + Colorado Caieiras defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.58

Colorado Caieiras attack 0.80 + Sao Carlos defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sao Carlos scores more

55%

level

25%

Colorado Caieiras scores more

20%

Sao Carlos at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sao Carlos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff