Colorado Caieiras 1–0 Sao Carlos: Result & Stats

Colorado Caieiras

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sao Carlos

V. Soares 33'

6/29/2024

Paulista Série B · 2nd Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Carlos Ferracini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Colorado Caieiras50%

×Draw30%

Sao Carlos20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colorado CaieirasExpected goals in this matchSao Carlos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.66

Colorado Caieiras

1.22

Sao Carlos

0.66

Colorado Caieiras creates 85% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 18 away

1.00

creates per match

0.61

0.70

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Colorado Caieiras

1.00

Sao Carlos

0.61

allows per match

Colorado Caieiras

0.70

Sao Carlos

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colorado Caieiras+0.00on par

Sao Carlos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Caieiras ↓

Sao Carlos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Colorado Caieiras or draw

80%

Colorado Caieiras or Sao Carlos

70%

Draw or Sao Carlos

50%

Winning margin

Colorado Caieiras wins by 2+

22%

Sao Carlos wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Colorado Caieiras 1+ goals

70%

Colorado Caieiras 2+ goals

34%

Colorado Caieiras 3+ goals

12%

Sao Carlos 1+ goals

48%

Sao Carlos 2+ goals

14%

Sao Carlos 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Colorado Caieiras (draw refunded)

71%

Sao Carlos (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Caieiras at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Sao Carlos away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Caieiras attack 1.00 + Sao Carlos defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sao Carlos attack 0.61 + Colorado Caieiras defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Colorado Caieiras scores more

50%

level

30%

Sao Carlos scores more

20%

Colorado Caieiras at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Colorado Caieiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

MIchel

33'

V. Soares

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff