Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sao Carlos vs Batatais — Paulista Série B 2026

Sao Carlos
Sao Carlos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Batatais
Batatais
Dezin 16'
Cleber Lucas 86'
Mayquinho 49'
4/25/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Prof. Luís Augusto de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sao Carlos59%
×Draw22%
Batatais19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Carlos
1.89
Batatais
0.95

Sao Carlos creates 99% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sao Carlos
2.06
Batatais
1.00

allows per match

Sao Carlos
0.89
Batatais
1.71

finishing

Sao Carlos+0.00on par
Batatais+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Carlos ↓

Batatais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sao Carlos or draw
81%
Sao Carlos or Batatais
78%
Draw or Batatais
41%

Winning margin

Sao Carlos wins by 2+
35%
Batatais wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sao Carlos 1+ goals
85%
Sao Carlos 2+ goals
56%
Sao Carlos 3+ goals
29%
Batatais 1+ goals
61%
Batatais 2+ goals
25%
Batatais 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sao Carlos (draw refunded)
76%
Batatais (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Carlos at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Batatais away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Carlos attack 2.06 + Batatais defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.89

Batatais attack 1.00 + Sao Carlos defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sao Carlos scores more
59%
level
22%
Batatais scores more
19%

Sao Carlos at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sao Carlos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
Dezin
49'
Mayquinho
71'
Renato Camargo
86'
Cleber Lucas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sao Carlos 1 – 2 Batatais

Batatais beat Sao Carlos 2-1 in Paulista Série B on April 25, 2025.

Goals: Dezin (16'), Mayquinho (49'), Cleber Lucas (86').

The match was played at Estádio Prof. Luís Augusto de Oliveira in São Carlos, São Paulo.