Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Batatais vs Sao Carlos — Paulista Série B 2026

Batatais
Batatais
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sao Carlos
Sao Carlos
Cleber Lucas 65', 52'
6/1/2025Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Doutor Oswaldo Scatena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Batatais50%
×Draw28%
Sao Carlos22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Batatais
1.36
Sao Carlos
0.80

Batatais creates 70% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

creates per match

Batatais
1.29
Sao Carlos
0.61

allows per match

Batatais
1.00
Sao Carlos
1.44

finishing

Batatais+0.00on par
Sao Carlos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Batatais ↓

Sao Carlos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Batatais or draw
78%
Batatais or Sao Carlos
72%
Draw or Sao Carlos
50%

Winning margin

Batatais wins by 2+
24%
Sao Carlos wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Batatais 1+ goals
74%
Batatais 2+ goals
39%
Batatais 3+ goals
16%
Sao Carlos 1+ goals
55%
Sao Carlos 2+ goals
19%
Sao Carlos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Batatais (draw refunded)
69%
Sao Carlos (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Batatais at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Sao Carlos away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Batatais attack 1.29 + Sao Carlos defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sao Carlos attack 0.61 + Batatais defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Batatais scores more
50%
level
28%
Sao Carlos scores more
22%

Batatais at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Batatais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
Cleber Lucas
65'
Cleber Lucas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Batatais vs Sao Carlos

Batatais beat Sao Carlos 2-0 in Paulista Série B on June 1, 2025.

Goals: Cleber Lucas (52', 65').

The match was played at Estádio Doutor Oswaldo Scatena in Batatais, São Paulo.