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São Carlos U20 vs Ferroviária U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Carlos U20
São Carlos U20
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 2
Ferroviária U20
Ferroviária U20
Joao 90+4', 74'
V. Pereira 85'
Dias 82'
Erick Monterio 61', 40'
M. Cantarelli 35'
4/26/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Prof. Luís Augusto de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

São Carlos U2014%
×Draw17%
Ferroviária U2070%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Carlos U20
1.04
Ferroviária U20
2.55

Ferroviária U20 creates 145% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

creates per match

São Carlos U20
1.00
Ferroviária U20
1.70

allows per match

São Carlos U20
3.40
Ferroviária U20
1.09

finishing

São Carlos U20+0.00on par
Ferroviária U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 69Under: 3169%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Carlos U20 ↓

Ferroviária U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

São Carlos U20 or draw
30%
São Carlos U20 or Ferroviária U20
83%
Draw or Ferroviária U20
86%

Winning margin

São Carlos U20 wins by 2+
5%
Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

São Carlos U20 1+ goals
65%
São Carlos U20 2+ goals
28%
São Carlos U20 3+ goals
9%
Ferroviária U20 1+ goals
92%
Ferroviária U20 2+ goals
72%
Ferroviária U20 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

São Carlos U20 (draw refunded)
16%
Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Carlos U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Ferroviária U20 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Carlos U20 attack 1.00 + Ferroviária U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Ferroviária U20 attack 1.70 + São Carlos U20 defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

São Carlos U20 scores more
14%
level
17%
Ferroviária U20 scores more
70%

Ferroviária U20 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
M. Cantarelli
40'
Erick Monterio
61'
Erick Monterio
74'
Joao
82'
Dias
85'
V. Pereira
90+4'
Joao

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São Carlos U20 vs Ferroviária U20

Ferroviária U20 beat São Carlos U20 7-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 26, 2024.

Goals: M. Cantarelli (35'), Erick Monterio (40', 61'), Joao (74', 90+4'), Dias (82'), V. Pereira (85').

The match was played at Estádio Prof. Luís Augusto de Oliveira in São Carlos, São Paulo.