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Ferroviária U20 vs São Carlos U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ferroviária U20
Ferroviária U20
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
São Carlos U20
São Carlos U20
G. dos Santos 63'
D. Silva 52', 23'
Erick Monterio 48', 28'
M. Cantarelli 39', 29'
5/31/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Dr. Hudson Buck Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ferroviária U2075%
×Draw17%
São Carlos U209%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviária U20
2.30
São Carlos U20
0.64

Ferroviária U20 creates 259% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ferroviária U20
2.20
São Carlos U20
0.40

allows per match

Ferroviária U20
0.88
São Carlos U20
2.40

finishing

Ferroviária U20+0.00on par
São Carlos U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 58Yes: 4258%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviária U20 ↓

São Carlos U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ferroviária U20 or draw
91%
Ferroviária U20 or São Carlos U20
83%
Draw or São Carlos U20
25%

Winning margin

Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+
51%
São Carlos U20 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ferroviária U20 1+ goals
90%
Ferroviária U20 2+ goals
67%
Ferroviária U20 3+ goals
40%
São Carlos U20 1+ goals
47%
São Carlos U20 2+ goals
14%
São Carlos U20 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)
90%
São Carlos U20 (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviária U20 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

São Carlos U20 away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviária U20 attack 2.20 + São Carlos U20 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.30

São Carlos U20 attack 0.40 + Ferroviária U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Ferroviária U20 scores more
75%
level
17%
São Carlos U20 scores more
9%

Ferroviária U20 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
D. Silva
28'
Erick Monterio
29'
M. Cantarelli
39'
M. Cantarelli
48'
Erick Monterio
52'
D. Silva
63'
G. dos Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ferroviária U20 vs São Carlos U20

Ferroviária U20 beat São Carlos U20 7-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 31, 2024.

Goals: D. Silva (23', 52'), Erick Monterio (28', 48'), M. Cantarelli (29', 39'), G. dos Santos (63').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Hudson Buck Pereira in Matão, São Paulo.