São Caetano 0–9 Pelotas: Result & Stats | Serie D

São Caetano

FT

0 – 9

HT: 0 – 6

Pelotas

10/24/2020

Serie D · Round 9Estádio Municipal Anacleto Campanella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

São Caetano13%

×Draw25%

Pelotas63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São CaetanoExpected goals in this matchPelotas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.55

1.59

São Caetano

0.55

Pelotas

1.59

Pelotas creates 189% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

0.80

creates per match

1.29

1.90

allows per match

0.29

creates per match

São Caetano

0.80

Pelotas

1.29

allows per match

São Caetano

1.90

Pelotas

0.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Caetano+0.00on par

Pelotas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Caetano ↓

Pelotas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–119%

0–215%

0–38%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

São Caetano or draw

37%

São Caetano or Pelotas

75%

Draw or Pelotas

87%

Winning margin

São Caetano wins by 2+

3%

Pelotas wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

São Caetano 1+ goals

42%

São Caetano 2+ goals

11%

São Caetano 3+ goals

2%

Pelotas 1+ goals

80%

Pelotas 2+ goals

47%

Pelotas 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

São Caetano (draw refunded)

17%

Pelotas (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Caetano at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

Pelotas away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Caetano attack 0.80 + Pelotas defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.55

Pelotas attack 1.29 + São Caetano defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

São Caetano scores more

13%

level

25%

Pelotas scores more

63%

Pelotas at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff