Pelotas 3–1 São Caetano: Result & Stats | Serie D

Pelotas

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

São Caetano

10/15/2020

Serie D · Round 6Estádio Boca do Lobo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Pelotas64%

×Draw21%

São Caetano15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PelotasExpected goals in this matchSão Caetano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.84

Pelotas

2.00

São Caetano

0.84

Pelotas creates 138% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.71

creates per match

0.40

1.29

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Pelotas

1.71

São Caetano

0.40

allows per match

Pelotas

1.29

São Caetano

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pelotas+0.00on par

São Caetano+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pelotas ↓

São Caetano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pelotas or draw

85%

Pelotas or São Caetano

79%

Draw or São Caetano

36%

Winning margin

Pelotas wins by 2+

40%

São Caetano wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Pelotas 1+ goals

86%

Pelotas 2+ goals

59%

Pelotas 3+ goals

32%

São Caetano 1+ goals

57%

São Caetano 2+ goals

21%

São Caetano 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Pelotas (draw refunded)

81%

São Caetano (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pelotas at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

São Caetano away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pelotas attack 1.71 + São Caetano defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.00

São Caetano attack 0.40 + Pelotas defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Pelotas scores more

64%

level

21%

São Caetano scores more

15%

Pelotas at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff