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São Caetano U20 vs Água Santa U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Caetano U20
São Caetano U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Água Santa U20
Água Santa U20
Unknown 57'
4/26/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Anacleto Campanella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

São Caetano U2048%
×Draw24%
Água Santa U2027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Caetano U20
1.65
Água Santa U20
1.17

São Caetano U20 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

creates per match

São Caetano U20
1.29
Água Santa U20
1.19

allows per match

São Caetano U20
1.14
Água Santa U20
2.00

finishing

São Caetano U20+0.00on par
Água Santa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Caetano U20 ↓

Água Santa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

São Caetano U20 or draw
73%
São Caetano U20 or Água Santa U20
76%
Draw or Água Santa U20
52%

Winning margin

São Caetano U20 wins by 2+
26%
Água Santa U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

São Caetano U20 1+ goals
81%
São Caetano U20 2+ goals
49%
São Caetano U20 3+ goals
23%
Água Santa U20 1+ goals
69%
Água Santa U20 2+ goals
33%
Água Santa U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

São Caetano U20 (draw refunded)
64%
Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Caetano U20 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Água Santa U20 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Caetano U20 attack 1.29 + Água Santa U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Água Santa U20 attack 1.19 + São Caetano U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

São Caetano U20 scores more
48%
level
24%
Água Santa U20 scores more
27%

São Caetano U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "São Caetano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São Caetano U20 vs Água Santa U20

São Caetano U20 beat Água Santa U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 26, 2024.

Goals: ? (57').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Anacleto Campanella in São Caetano do Sul, São Paulo.