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Água Santa U20 vs São Caetano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Água Santa U20
Água Santa U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
São Caetano U20
São Caetano U20
Davi Gomes 83'
E. Vieira dos Santos 38'
5/31/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Gíglio Portugal Pichinin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Água Santa U2046%
×Draw26%
São Caetano U2027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Água Santa U20
1.46
São Caetano U20
1.06

Água Santa U20 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 20 away

creates per match

Água Santa U20
1.53
São Caetano U20
1.05

allows per match

Água Santa U20
1.06
São Caetano U20
1.40

finishing

Água Santa U20+0.00on par
São Caetano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Água Santa U20 ↓

São Caetano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Água Santa U20 or draw
73%
Água Santa U20 or São Caetano U20
74%
Draw or São Caetano U20
54%

Winning margin

Água Santa U20 wins by 2+
23%
São Caetano U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Água Santa U20 1+ goals
77%
Água Santa U20 2+ goals
43%
Água Santa U20 3+ goals
18%
São Caetano U20 1+ goals
65%
São Caetano U20 2+ goals
29%
São Caetano U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)
63%
São Caetano U20 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Água Santa U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

São Caetano U20 away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Água Santa U20 attack 1.53 + São Caetano U20 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

São Caetano U20 attack 1.05 + Água Santa U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Água Santa U20 scores more
46%
level
26%
São Caetano U20 scores more
27%

Água Santa U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Água Santa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
E. Vieira dos Santos
83'
Davi Gomes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Água Santa U20 vs São Caetano U20

Água Santa U20 and São Caetano U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on May 31, 2024.

Goals: E. Vieira dos Santos (38'), Davi Gomes (83').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Gíglio Portugal Pichinin in São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo.