São Bernardo 2–0 CSA: Result & Stats | Serie C

São Bernardo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CSA

Lucas Lima 89'

Kayke 39'

5/26/2024

Serie C · Round 6Estádio Primeiro de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

São Bernardo46%

×Draw30%

CSA24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São BernardoExpected goals in this matchCSA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.78

São Bernardo

1.19

CSA

0.78

São Bernardo creates 53% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 29 away

1.39

creates per match

0.79

0.76

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

São Bernardo

1.39

CSA

0.79

allows per match

São Bernardo

0.76

CSA

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Bernardo+0.00on par

CSA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Bernardo ↓

CSA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

São Bernardo or draw

76%

São Bernardo or CSA

70%

Draw or CSA

54%

Winning margin

São Bernardo wins by 2+

20%

CSA wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

São Bernardo 1+ goals

70%

São Bernardo 2+ goals

33%

São Bernardo 3+ goals

12%

CSA 1+ goals

54%

CSA 2+ goals

18%

CSA 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

São Bernardo (draw refunded)

65%

CSA (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Bernardo at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

CSA away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Bernardo attack 1.39 + CSA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

CSA attack 0.79 + São Bernardo defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

São Bernardo scores more

46%

level

30%

CSA scores more

24%

São Bernardo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "São Bernardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

39'

45'

45+1'

46'

Marquinhos← Richard Rodrigues

46'

Tiago Marques← Juninho Valoura

50'

Jean Cleber

64'

Alisson Farias← Iury Tanque

64'

Buga← Jean Cléber

68'

Breno← Wesley Dias

68'

Luiz Filipe← Lucas Tocantins

70'

Junior Oliveira

72'

77'

Davi Gabriel← Silvinho

78'

Roger← Vitor Leque

82'

Vitinho← Breno

89'

Lucas Lima

90+4'

Buga

São

CSA

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Ricardo Catalá

68'▲Breno←▼Wesley Dias

68'▲Luiz Filipe←▼Lucas Tocantins

77'▲Davi Gabriel←▼Silvinho

82'▲Vitinho←▼Breno

São Bernardo substitutes

BrenoFilipeGabrielVitinhoKauêSantosHannyelDouglasLopo

Manager: Higo Magalhães

46'▲Marquinhos←▼Richard Rodrigues

46'▲Tiago Marques←▼Juninho Valoura

64'▲Alisson Farias←▼Iury Tanque

64'▲Buga←▼Jean Cléber

78'▲Roger←▼Vitor Leque

CSA substitutes

MarquinhosMarquesFariasBugaRogerThomazellaLuanMarquesFavela