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CSA vs São Bernardo — Serie C 2018

CSA
CSA
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
São Bernardo
São Bernardo
5/28/2023Serie CSerie C · Round 5Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

CSA39%
×Draw30%
São Bernardo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSA
1.11
São Bernardo
0.96

CSA creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 37 away

creates per match

CSA
1.23
São Bernardo
0.81

allows per match

CSA
1.10
São Bernardo
1.00

finishing

CSA+0.00on par
São Bernardo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

São Bernardo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CSA or draw
69%
CSA or São Bernardo
70%
Draw or São Bernardo
61%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+
16%
São Bernardo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals
67%
CSA 2+ goals
30%
CSA 3+ goals
10%
São Bernardo 1+ goals
62%
São Bernardo 2+ goals
25%
São Bernardo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)
56%
São Bernardo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

São Bernardo away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.23 + São Bernardo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

São Bernardo attack 0.81 + CSA defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CSA scores more
39%
level
30%
São Bernardo scores more
31%

CSA at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie C: CSA 1–0 São Bernardo

CSA beat São Bernardo 1-0 in Serie C on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceió, Alagoas.