São Bernardo 2–1 Botafogo SP: Result & Stats

São Bernardo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Botafogo SP

Vitinho 90+7' (pen), 88'

Edson 11'

2/19/2023

League #475 · Round 10Estádio Primeiro de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

São Bernardo74%

×Draw19%

Botafogo SP7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São BernardoExpected goals in this matchBotafogo SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.42

São Bernardo

1.92

Botafogo SP

0.42

São Bernardo creates 357% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

0.33

0.50

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

São Bernardo

1.50

Botafogo SP

0.33

allows per match

São Bernardo

0.50

Botafogo SP

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Bernardo+0.00on par

Botafogo SP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Bernardo ↓

Botafogo SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

São Bernardo or draw

93%

São Bernardo or Botafogo SP

81%

Draw or Botafogo SP

26%

Winning margin

São Bernardo wins by 2+

46%

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

São Bernardo 1+ goals

85%

São Bernardo 2+ goals

57%

São Bernardo 3+ goals

30%

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

34%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

7%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

São Bernardo (draw refunded)

91%

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Bernardo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Bernardo attack 1.50 + Botafogo SP defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Botafogo SP attack 0.33 + São Bernardo defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

São Bernardo scores more

74%

level

19%

Botafogo SP scores more

7%

São Bernardo at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "São Bernardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Vitinho

São Bernardo · M

8.3

Match Events

11'

38'

39'

45+6'

45'

46'

Thassio← Vidal

46'

Gustavo Henrique← Diogo Silva

59'

Marcel

61'

Hugo Sanches← Alex Reinaldo

61'

Henrique Lordelo← Hélder

61'

Lucas Lourenço← Edson

65'

Jean Victor← Luiz Henrique

66'

Guilherme Mantuan← Marcel

67'

Thassio

75'

Felipe Marques← Rafael Vaz

76'

Caio Dantas

78'

Lucas Lourenço

88'

Vitinho↳ Chrystian Barletta

90+11'

Hugo

90+4'

Chrystian BarlettaPenalty confirmed

90+7'

Osman

90+8'

Jhony Douglas← Chrystian Barletta

90+8'

Romércio← Vitinho

90+7'

VitinhoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SãoBotafogo

Overview

68%Possession32%

18Total Shots5

4Corners1

15Fouls18

Shots

18Total Shots5

5On Target1

9Off Target2

4Blocked2

10Inside Box4

8Outside Box1

Passing

68%Possession32%

530Total Passes256

424Accurate Passes154

80%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls18

2Yellow Cards7

1Red Cards0