Botafogo SP 1–2 São Bernardo: Result & Stats

Botafogo SP

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

São Bernardo

Hygor 4'

Daniel Amorim 90'

Rodrigo Ferreira 49'

4/5/2026

Serie B · Round 3Estádio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Botafogo SP43%

×Draw27%

São Bernardo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo SPExpected goals in this matchSão Bernardo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.07

Botafogo SP

1.34

São Bernardo

1.07

Botafogo SP creates 25% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

1.27

creates per match

1.18

0.97

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Botafogo SP

1.27

São Bernardo

1.18

allows per match

Botafogo SP

0.97

São Bernardo

1.41

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.99scores more than expected

finishing

Botafogo SP+0.16scores more

São Bernardo+0.99scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP ↓

São Bernardo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Botafogo SP or draw

70%

Botafogo SP or São Bernardo

73%

Draw or São Bernardo

57%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

20%

São Bernardo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

74%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

39%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

15%

São Bernardo 1+ goals

66%

São Bernardo 2+ goals

29%

São Bernardo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

59%

São Bernardo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.97 · 14 matches

São Bernardo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.41 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP attack 1.27 + São Bernardo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

São Bernardo attack 1.18 + Botafogo SP defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Botafogo SP scores more

43%

level

27%

São Bernardo scores more

30%

Botafogo SP at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Botafogo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Rodrigo Ferreira

São Bernardo · D

7.7

Match Events

4'

Hygor↳ Jonathan

18'

Pedro Henrique← Jonathan

33'

Leandro Maciel

41'

Pará

45+5'

Pablo DyegoGoal cancelled

46'

Daniel Amorim← Fabricio Daniel

46'

Pedro Vitor← Pablo Dyego

46'

Echapora← Pedrinho

49'

Rodrigo Ferreira↳ Pedro Vitor

55'

Kelvin

65'

Junior Urso← Dudu Miraima

72'

Wesley Santos← Kelvin

72'

Thiago Moraes← Rafael Gava

77'

Lucas Fernandes← Foguinho

80'

Matheus Sales← Leandro Maciel

80'

Luizao← Ze Hugo

81'

Pedro Vitor

90+7'

Pedrinho

90'

Daniel Amorim↳ Echapora

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotafogoSão

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots11

1.25Expected Goals (xG)1.38

9Corners7

11Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots11

3On Target6

7Off Target1

4Blocked4

10Inside Box4

4Outside Box7

Passing

50%Possession50%

316Total Passes316

264Accurate Passes266

84%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.77Goals Prevented-0.77

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

5Offsides1