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Sao Bento vs Criciuma — Serie B 2026

Sao Bento
Sao Bento
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Criciuma
Criciuma
10/19/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 32Estádio Municipal Walter Ribeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sao Bento42%
×Draw29%
Criciuma28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Bento
1.21
Criciuma
0.93

Sao Bento creates 30% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 88 away

creates per match

Sao Bento
1.29
Criciuma
0.89

allows per match

Sao Bento
0.97
Criciuma
1.14

finishing

Sao Bento+0.00on par
Criciuma+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Bento ↓

Criciuma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sao Bento or draw
72%
Sao Bento or Criciuma
71%
Draw or Criciuma
58%

Winning margin

Sao Bento wins by 2+
19%
Criciuma wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sao Bento 1+ goals
70%
Sao Bento 2+ goals
34%
Sao Bento 3+ goals
12%
Criciuma 1+ goals
61%
Criciuma 2+ goals
24%
Criciuma 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sao Bento (draw refunded)
60%
Criciuma (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Bento at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.97 · 34 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.14 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Bento attack 1.29 + Criciuma defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Criciuma attack 0.89 + Sao Bento defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sao Bento scores more
42%
level
29%
Criciuma scores more
28%

Sao Bento at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sao Bento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
Sueliton
31'
Eduardo Biasi
46'
Cleo Silva← Zezinho
46'
Carlos Eduardo← Sueliton
59'
Elvis
61'
Diogo Oliveira← Roni
66'
Dudu Vieira
68'
Ronaldo← Dudu Vieira
70'
Henal
72'
Zé Carlos
75'
Júnior Belliato
76'
Vitor Feijão
79'
Ewerton Páscoa
80'
Nicolas← Zé Carlos
90'
Marlon Freitas← Iago

Possession

51%Sao

Shots

19Sao

Pass accuracy

53%Sao

Statistics

SaoCriciuma
Overview
51%Possession49%
19Total Shots5
12Corners6
16Fouls21
Shots
19Total Shots5
1On Target4
8Off Target1
10Blocked0
12Inside Box2
7Outside Box3
Passing
51%Possession49%
335Total Passes342
291Accurate Passes266
87%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
16Fouls21
3Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
4Offsides3

Match Recap: Sao Bento vs Criciuma

Sao Bento and Criciuma drew 0-0 in Serie B on October 19, 2018.

Sao Bento controlled possession (51%) and registered 19 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Walter Ribeiro in Sorocaba.