Criciuma 3–1 Sao Bento: Result & Stats | Serie C

Criciuma

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sao Bento

Michel 78'

Léo Ceará 72'

Agenor 27' (pen)

Fábio Bahia 43'

8/24/2020

Serie C · Round 3Estádio Heriberto Hülse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Criciuma48%

×Draw30%

Sao Bento22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CriciumaExpected goals in this matchSao Bento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.74

Criciuma

1.25

Sao Bento

0.74

Criciuma creates 69% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

1.50

creates per match

0.69

0.80

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Criciuma

1.50

Sao Bento

0.69

allows per match

Criciuma

0.80

Sao Bento

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Criciuma+0.00on par

Sao Bento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Sao Bento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw

78%

Criciuma or Sao Bento

70%

Draw or Sao Bento

52%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+

22%

Sao Bento wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals

71%

Criciuma 2+ goals

36%

Criciuma 3+ goals

13%

Sao Bento 1+ goals

52%

Sao Bento 2+ goals

17%

Sao Bento 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)

69%

Sao Bento (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Sao Bento away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.50 + Sao Bento defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sao Bento attack 0.69 + Criciuma defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Criciuma scores more

48%

level

30%

Sao Bento scores more

22%

Criciuma at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

AgenorPenalty

32'

Jheimy← Mizael

43'

Fábio Bahia

46'

Lucas Silva← Serginho

46'

Matheus Guarujá← Igor Soares

58'

Andrew← Jean Dias

58'

Léo Ceará← Alisson Taddei

58'

Rafinha← Evandro

71'

Marcelo← Allan Vieira

72'

Léo Ceará

78'

Michel

83'

Rodrigo Milanez← Victor Guilherme

90+1'

Adenilson← Foguinho

90+1'

Jajá← Michel

Criciuma

Sao

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Michel

Manager: Roberto Cavalo

58'▲Andrew←▼Jean Dias

58'▲Léo Ceará←▼Alisson Taddei

83'▲Rodrigo Milanez←▼Victor Guilherme

90+1'▲Adenilson←▼Foguinho

90+1'▲Jajá←▼Michel

Criciuma substitutes

AndrewCearáMilanezAdenilsonJajáGianeziniOliveiraChristoferQueiroz

Manager: Edson Vieira

32'▲Jheimy←▼Mizael

46'▲Lucas Silva←▼Serginho

46'▲Matheus Guarujá←▼Igor Soares

58'▲Rafinha←▼Evandro

71'▲Marcelo←▼Allan Vieira

Sao Bento substitutes

JheimySilvaGuarujáRafinhaMarceloVitorAdrielAlisonFerrugemLuis