Sao Bento 2–1 Atletico Goianiense: Result & Stats

Sao Bento

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Goianiense

Diogo Oliveira 71'

Anderson Salles 8' (pen)

Oliveira 90'

7/28/2018

Serie B · Round 18Estádio Municipal Walter Ribeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sao Bento43%

×Draw28%

Atletico Goianiense29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao BentoExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.00

Sao Bento

1.27

Atletico Goianiense

1.00

Sao Bento creates 27% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 71 away

1.29

creates per match

1.03

0.97

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Sao Bento

1.29

Atletico Goianiense

1.03

allows per match

Sao Bento

0.97

Atletico Goianiense

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Bento+0.00on par

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Bento ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sao Bento or draw

71%

Sao Bento or Atletico Goianiense

72%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

57%

Winning margin

Sao Bento wins by 2+

19%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sao Bento 1+ goals

72%

Sao Bento 2+ goals

36%

Sao Bento 3+ goals

14%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

63%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

26%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sao Bento (draw refunded)

59%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Bento at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.97 · 34 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Bento attack 1.29 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.03 + Sao Bento defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sao Bento scores more

43%

level

28%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

29%

Sao Bento at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sao Bento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Anderson SallesPenalty

18'

Renato Kayser

22'

Paulinho

36'

Luizão← Ewerton Páscoa

46'

Diogo Oliveira← Doriva

51'

Tony

60'

Tomas Bastos← João Paulo

60'

Júlio César← André Luis

67'

Joãozinho← Branquinho

71'

Diogo Oliveira↳ Joãozinho

76'

Denilson← Renato Kayzer

90'

Diogo Oliveira

90'

Oliveira↳ Tomas Bastos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaoAtletico

Overview

35%Possession65%

13Total Shots15

5Corners3

13Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots15

2On Target5

7Off Target6

4Blocked4

8Inside Box5

5Outside Box10

Passing

35%Possession65%

295Total Passes548

215Accurate Passes459

73%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides3