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Atletico Goianiense vs Sao Bento — Serie B 2026

Atletico Goianiense
Atletico Goianiense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sao Bento
Sao Bento
André Luis 25'
11/16/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 37Serra Dourada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Atletico Goianiense49%
×Draw26%
Sao Bento25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Goianiense
1.50
Sao Bento
1.01

Atletico Goianiense creates 49% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 33 away

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense
1.59
Sao Bento
1.12

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense
0.89
Sao Bento
1.42

finishing

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par
Sao Bento+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Sao Bento →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw
75%
Atletico Goianiense or Sao Bento
74%
Draw or Sao Bento
51%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+
24%
Sao Bento wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals
78%
Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals
44%
Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals
19%
Sao Bento 1+ goals
64%
Sao Bento 2+ goals
27%
Sao Bento 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)
66%
Sao Bento (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.89 · 73 matches

Sao Bento away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.59 + Sao Bento defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sao Bento attack 1.12 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more
49%
level
26%
Sao Bento scores more
25%

Atletico Goianiense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
Tony
25'
André Luis↳ Renato Kayzer
31'
Roni
42'
Ewerton Páscoa
46'
Cleo Silva← Joãozinho
56'
Thiago Santos← Vitinho
73'
Paulo← Dudu Vieira
78'
Denilson← André Luis

Possession

76%Atletico

Shots

23Atletico

Pass accuracy

58%Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoSao
Overview
76%Possession24%
23Total Shots5
13Corners5
13Fouls10
Shots
23Total Shots5
6On Target0
12Off Target3
5Blocked2
10Inside Box3
13Outside Box2
Passing
76%Possession24%
682Total Passes207
615Accurate Passes137
90%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls10
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
7Offsides0

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs Sao Bento

Atletico Goianiense beat Sao Bento 1-0 in Serie B on November 16, 2018.

Goals: André Luis (25').

Atletico Goianiense controlled possession (76%) and registered 23 shots to 5.

The match was played at Serra Dourada in Goiania.