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Santutxu vs Pasaia KE — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Santutxu
Santutxu
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pasaia KE
Pasaia KE
1/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Estadio Mallona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Santutxu42%
×Draw29%
Pasaia KE29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santutxu
1.23
Pasaia KE
0.98

Santutxu creates 26% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 111 away

creates per match

Santutxu
1.07
Pasaia KE
1.00

allows per match

Santutxu
0.96
Pasaia KE
1.38

finishing

Santutxu+0.00on par
Pasaia KE+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santutxu ↓

Pasaia KE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Santutxu or draw
71%
Santutxu or Pasaia KE
71%
Draw or Pasaia KE
58%

Winning margin

Santutxu wins by 2+
18%
Pasaia KE wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Santutxu 1+ goals
71%
Santutxu 2+ goals
35%
Santutxu 3+ goals
13%
Pasaia KE 1+ goals
62%
Pasaia KE 2+ goals
26%
Pasaia KE 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Santutxu (draw refunded)
59%
Pasaia KE (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santutxu at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

Pasaia KE away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santutxu attack 1.07 + Pasaia KE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Pasaia KE attack 1.00 + Santutxu defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Santutxu scores more
42%
level
29%
Pasaia KE scores more
29%

Santutxu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Santutxu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Santutxu 1–1 Pasaia KE

Santutxu and Pasaia KE drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Mallona in Bilbao.