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Pasaia KE vs Santutxu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Pasaia KE
Pasaia KE
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Santutxu
Santutxu
9/15/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Estadio Don Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Pasaia KE39%
×Draw28%
Santutxu34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pasaia KE
1.26
Santutxu
1.15

Pasaia KE creates 10% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 46 away

creates per match

Pasaia KE
0.93
Santutxu
0.98

allows per match

Pasaia KE
1.31
Santutxu
1.59

finishing

Pasaia KE+0.00on par
Santutxu+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pasaia KE ↓

Santutxu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pasaia KE or draw
66%
Pasaia KE or Santutxu
72%
Draw or Santutxu
61%

Winning margin

Pasaia KE wins by 2+
17%
Santutxu wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pasaia KE 1+ goals
72%
Pasaia KE 2+ goals
36%
Pasaia KE 3+ goals
13%
Santutxu 1+ goals
68%
Santutxu 2+ goals
32%
Santutxu 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)
54%
Santutxu (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pasaia KE at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Santutxu away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pasaia KE attack 0.93 + Santutxu defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.26

Santutxu attack 0.98 + Pasaia KE defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pasaia KE scores more
39%
level
28%
Santutxu scores more
34%

Pasaia KE at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pasaia KE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Pasaia KE 2–2 Santutxu

Pasaia KE and Santutxu drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 15, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Don Bosco in Pasajes-Pasaia.