Santutxu 2–0 Lagun Onak: Result & Stats

Santutxu

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Lagun Onak

10/3/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 6Estadio Mallona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Santutxu41%

×Draw29%

Lagun Onak29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantutxuExpected goals in this matchLagun Onak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.96

Santutxu

1.20

Lagun Onak

0.96

Santutxu creates 25% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 114 away

1.07

creates per match

0.97

0.96

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Santutxu

1.07

Lagun Onak

0.97

allows per match

Santutxu

0.96

Lagun Onak

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santutxu+0.00on par

Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santutxu ↓

Lagun Onak →

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Santutxu or draw

71%

Santutxu or Lagun Onak

71%

Draw or Lagun Onak

59%

Winning margin

Santutxu wins by 2+

18%

Lagun Onak wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Santutxu 1+ goals

70%

Santutxu 2+ goals

34%

Santutxu 3+ goals

12%

Lagun Onak 1+ goals

62%

Lagun Onak 2+ goals

25%

Lagun Onak 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Santutxu (draw refunded)

59%

Lagun Onak (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santutxu at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

Lagun Onak away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santutxu attack 1.07 + Lagun Onak defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Lagun Onak attack 0.97 + Santutxu defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Santutxu scores more

41%

level

29%

Lagun Onak scores more

29%

Santutxu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Santutxu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff