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Lagun Onak vs Santutxu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Lagun Onak
Lagun Onak
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Santutxu
Santutxu
10/26/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Estadio Garmendipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Lagun Onak49%
×Draw26%
Santutxu25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lagun Onak
1.47
Santutxu
0.97

Lagun Onak creates 52% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 46 away

creates per match

Lagun Onak
1.35
Santutxu
0.98

allows per match

Lagun Onak
0.97
Santutxu
1.59

finishing

Lagun Onak+0.00on par
Santutxu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagun Onak ↓

Santutxu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lagun Onak or draw
75%
Lagun Onak or Santutxu
74%
Draw or Santutxu
51%

Winning margin

Lagun Onak wins by 2+
24%
Santutxu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lagun Onak 1+ goals
77%
Lagun Onak 2+ goals
43%
Lagun Onak 3+ goals
18%
Santutxu 1+ goals
62%
Santutxu 2+ goals
25%
Santutxu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lagun Onak (draw refunded)
66%
Santutxu (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lagun Onak at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Santutxu away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lagun Onak attack 1.35 + Santutxu defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.47

Santutxu attack 0.98 + Lagun Onak defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lagun Onak scores more
49%
level
26%
Santutxu scores more
25%

Lagun Onak at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lagun Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Lagun Onak 1–1 Santutxu

Lagun Onak and Santutxu drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Garmendipe in Azpeitia.