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Santutxu vs Gernika — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Santutxu
Santutxu
CANC
22:00
Gernika
Gernika
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 37Estadio Mallona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Santutxu30%
×Draw28%
Gernika42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santutxu
1.04
Gernika
1.27

Gernika creates 22% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 27 away

creates per match

Santutxu
1.07
Gernika
1.59

allows per match

Santutxu
0.96
Gernika
1.00

finishing

Santutxu+0.00on par
Gernika+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santutxu ↓

Gernika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Santutxu or draw
58%
Santutxu or Gernika
72%
Draw or Gernika
70%

Winning margin

Santutxu wins by 2+
11%
Gernika wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Santutxu 1+ goals
65%
Santutxu 2+ goals
28%
Santutxu 3+ goals
9%
Gernika 1+ goals
72%
Gernika 2+ goals
36%
Gernika 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Santutxu (draw refunded)
42%
Gernika (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santutxu at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

Gernika away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santutxu attack 1.07 + Gernika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Gernika attack 1.59 + Santutxu defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Santutxu scores more
30%
level
28%
Gernika scores more
42%

Gernika at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gernika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santutxu face Gernika (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 returns with Santutxu hosting Gernika. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Santutxu host Gernika at Estadio Mallona.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.