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Gernika vs Santutxu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Gernika
Gernika
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Santutxu
Santutxu
12/21/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Estadio Urbieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Gernika59%
×Draw23%
Santutxu18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gernika
1.74
Santutxu
0.84

Gernika creates 107% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 46 away

creates per match

Gernika
1.89
Santutxu
0.98

allows per match

Gernika
0.70
Santutxu
1.59

finishing

Gernika+0.00on par
Santutxu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gernika ↓

Santutxu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gernika or draw
82%
Gernika or Santutxu
77%
Draw or Santutxu
41%

Winning margin

Gernika wins by 2+
33%
Santutxu wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gernika 1+ goals
82%
Gernika 2+ goals
52%
Gernika 3+ goals
25%
Santutxu 1+ goals
57%
Santutxu 2+ goals
21%
Santutxu 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gernika (draw refunded)
77%
Santutxu (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gernika at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.70 · 27 matches

Santutxu away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gernika attack 1.89 + Santutxu defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.74

Santutxu attack 0.98 + Gernika defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gernika scores more
59%
level
23%
Santutxu scores more
18%

Gernika at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gernika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Gernika 2–1 Santutxu

Gernika beat Santutxu 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Urbieta in Gernika-Lumo.