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Santurtzi vs Real Sociedad III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Santurtzi
Santurtzi
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Real Sociedad III
Real Sociedad III
4/12/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 30Estadio San Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Santurtzi37%
×Draw26%
Real Sociedad III37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santurtzi
1.32
Real Sociedad III
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 44 away

creates per match

Santurtzi
1.13
Real Sociedad III
1.66

allows per match

Santurtzi
0.98
Real Sociedad III
1.52

finishing

Santurtzi+0.00on par
Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santurtzi ↓

Real Sociedad III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Santurtzi or draw
63%
Santurtzi or Real Sociedad III
74%
Draw or Real Sociedad III
63%

Winning margin

Santurtzi wins by 2+
17%
Real Sociedad III wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Santurtzi 1+ goals
73%
Santurtzi 2+ goals
38%
Santurtzi 3+ goals
15%
Real Sociedad III 1+ goals
73%
Real Sociedad III 2+ goals
38%
Real Sociedad III 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Santurtzi (draw refunded)
50%
Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santurtzi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Real Sociedad III away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santurtzi attack 1.13 + Real Sociedad III defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32

Real Sociedad III attack 1.66 + Santurtzi defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Santurtzi scores more
37%
level
26%
Real Sociedad III scores more
37%

Santurtzi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Santurtzi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santurtzi vs Real Sociedad III

Real Sociedad III beat Santurtzi 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio San Jorge in Santurtzi.