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Real Sociedad III vs Santurtzi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Real Sociedad III
Real Sociedad III
CANC
00:00
Santurtzi
Santurtzi
3/30/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 30Estadio Berio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Real Sociedad III50%
×Draw26%
Santurtzi24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad III
1.51
Santurtzi
0.95

Real Sociedad III creates 59% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 64 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad III
1.57
Santurtzi
0.97

allows per match

Real Sociedad III
0.93
Santurtzi
1.45

finishing

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par
Santurtzi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad III ↓

Santurtzi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Sociedad III or draw
76%
Real Sociedad III or Santurtzi
74%
Draw or Santurtzi
50%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+
26%
Santurtzi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals
78%
Real Sociedad III 2+ goals
44%
Real Sociedad III 3+ goals
19%
Santurtzi 1+ goals
61%
Santurtzi 2+ goals
25%
Santurtzi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)
68%
Santurtzi (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad III at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

Santurtzi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.45 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad III attack 1.57 + Santurtzi defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.51

Santurtzi attack 0.97 + Real Sociedad III defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Sociedad III scores more
50%
level
26%
Santurtzi scores more
24%

Real Sociedad III at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Sociedad III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Sociedad III host Santurtzi

March 30, 2020: Real Sociedad III take on Santurtzi in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Real Sociedad III host Santurtzi at Estadio Berio.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.