Santurtzi 1–2 Aurrerá Vitoria: Result & Stats

Santurtzi

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Aurrerá Vitoria

9/28/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Estadio San Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Santurtzi50%

×Draw27%

Aurrerá Vitoria23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SanturtziExpected goals in this matchAurrerá Vitoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.90

Santurtzi

1.46

Aurrerá Vitoria

0.90

Santurtzi creates 62% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 32 away

1.13

creates per match

0.81

0.98

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Santurtzi

1.13

Aurrerá Vitoria

0.81

allows per match

Santurtzi

0.98

Aurrerá Vitoria

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santurtzi+0.00on par

Aurrerá Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santurtzi ↓

Aurrerá Vitoria →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Santurtzi or draw

77%

Santurtzi or Aurrerá Vitoria

73%

Draw or Aurrerá Vitoria

50%

Winning margin

Santurtzi wins by 2+

25%

Aurrerá Vitoria wins by 2+

Team goals

Santurtzi 1+ goals

77%

Santurtzi 2+ goals

43%

Santurtzi 3+ goals

18%

Aurrerá Vitoria 1+ goals

59%

Aurrerá Vitoria 2+ goals

23%

Aurrerá Vitoria 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Santurtzi (draw refunded)

68%

Aurrerá Vitoria (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santurtzi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Aurrerá Vitoria away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santurtzi attack 1.13 + Aurrerá Vitoria defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Aurrerá Vitoria attack 0.81 + Santurtzi defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Santurtzi scores more

50%

level

27%

Aurrerá Vitoria scores more

23%

Santurtzi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santurtzi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Santurtzi 1–2 Aurrerá Vitoria

Aurrerá Vitoria beat Santurtzi 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio San Jorge in Santurtzi.

Santurtzi vs Aurrerá Vitoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Santurtzi 1–2 Aurrerá Vitoria