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Aurrerá Vitoria vs Santurtzi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Aurrerá Vitoria
Aurrerá Vitoria
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santurtzi
Santurtzi
2/7/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Estadio Olaranbe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aurrerá Vitoria37%
×Draw27%
Santurtzi36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aurrerá Vitoria
1.24
Santurtzi
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 64 away

creates per match

Aurrerá Vitoria
1.03
Santurtzi
0.97

allows per match

Aurrerá Vitoria
1.44
Santurtzi
1.45

finishing

Aurrerá Vitoria+0.00on par
Santurtzi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurrerá Vitoria ↓

Santurtzi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Aurrerá Vitoria or draw
64%
Aurrerá Vitoria or Santurtzi
73%
Draw or Santurtzi
63%

Winning margin

Aurrerá Vitoria wins by 2+
16%
Santurtzi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aurrerá Vitoria 1+ goals
71%
Aurrerá Vitoria 2+ goals
35%
Aurrerá Vitoria 3+ goals
13%
Santurtzi 1+ goals
70%
Santurtzi 2+ goals
34%
Santurtzi 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Aurrerá Vitoria (draw refunded)
51%
Santurtzi (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurrerá Vitoria at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Santurtzi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.45 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurrerá Vitoria attack 1.03 + Santurtzi defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.24

Santurtzi attack 0.97 + Aurrerá Vitoria defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aurrerá Vitoria scores more
37%
level
27%
Santurtzi scores more
36%

Aurrerá Vitoria at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Aurrerá Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aurrerá Vitoria vs Santurtzi

Aurrerá Vitoria beat Santurtzi 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 7, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Olaranbe in Vitoria-Gasteiz.