Sants 1–0 Sant Andreu: Result & Stats

Sants

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sant Andreu

1/24/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 13Camp de Futbol Energia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sants36%

×Draw27%

Sant Andreu37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantsExpected goals in this matchSant Andreu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.27

Sants

1.25

Sant Andreu

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 57 away

1.33

creates per match

1.47

1.07

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Sants

1.33

Sant Andreu

1.47

allows per match

Sants

1.07

Sant Andreu

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sants+0.00on par

Sant Andreu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sants ↓

Sant Andreu →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sants or draw

63%

Sants or Sant Andreu

73%

Draw or Sant Andreu

64%

Winning margin

Sants wins by 2+

16%

Sant Andreu wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sants 1+ goals

71%

Sants 2+ goals

36%

Sants 3+ goals

13%

Sant Andreu 1+ goals

72%

Sant Andreu 2+ goals

36%

Sant Andreu 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sants (draw refunded)

49%

Sant Andreu (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sants at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 45 matches

Sant Andreu away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sants attack 1.33 + Sant Andreu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sant Andreu attack 1.47 + Sants defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sants scores more

36%

level

27%

Sant Andreu scores more

37%

Sant Andreu at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sant Andreu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff