Sant Andreu 1–0 Sants: Result & Stats

Sant Andreu

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sants

2/16/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 24Camp Municipal Narcís Sala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sant Andreu58%

×Draw24%

Sants18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sant AndreuExpected goals in this matchSants

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.80

Sant Andreu

1.65

Sants

0.80

Sant Andreu creates 106% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 45 away

1.56

creates per match

0.82

0.78

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Sant Andreu

1.56

Sants

0.82

allows per match

Sant Andreu

0.78

Sants

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sant Andreu+0.00on par

Sants+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sant Andreu ↓

Sants →

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sant Andreu or draw

82%

Sant Andreu or Sants

76%

Draw or Sants

42%

Winning margin

Sant Andreu wins by 2+

32%

Sants wins by 2+

Team goals

Sant Andreu 1+ goals

81%

Sant Andreu 2+ goals

49%

Sant Andreu 3+ goals

23%

Sants 1+ goals

55%

Sants 2+ goals

19%

Sants 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sant Andreu (draw refunded)

76%

Sants (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sant Andreu at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.78 · 59 matches

Sants away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sant Andreu attack 1.56 + Sants defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sants attack 0.82 + Sant Andreu defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sant Andreu scores more

58%

level

24%

Sants scores more

18%

Sant Andreu at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sant Andreu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff