Santos W 2–1 Internacional RS W: Result & Stats

Santos W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Internacional RS W

Brena 68'

Cristiane 13'

Priscila 16'

4/30/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Santos W51%

×Draw23%

Internacional RS W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos WExpected goals in this matchInternacional RS W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.21

Santos W

1.80

Internacional RS W

1.21

Santos W creates 49% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 62 away

2.34

creates per match

1.48

0.93

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Santos W

2.34

Internacional RS W

1.48

allows per match

Santos W

0.93

Internacional RS W

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos W+0.00on par

Internacional RS W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos W ↓

Internacional RS W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Santos W or draw

74%

Santos W or Internacional RS W

77%

Draw or Internacional RS W

49%

Winning margin

Santos W wins by 2+

28%

Internacional RS W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Santos W 1+ goals

83%

Santos W 2+ goals

54%

Santos W 3+ goals

27%

Internacional RS W 1+ goals

70%

Internacional RS W 2+ goals

34%

Internacional RS W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Santos W (draw refunded)

67%

Internacional RS W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos W at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.93 · 61 matches

Internacional RS W away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.26 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos W attack 2.34 + Internacional RS W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.80

Internacional RS W attack 1.48 + Santos W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Santos W scores more

51%

level

23%

Internacional RS W scores more

26%

Santos W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Santos W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

16'

23'

45'

57'

Analuyza← Pati Llanos

57'

Djeni← Tauane Zóio

57'

Roberta← Eskerdinha

62'

Tainá Maranhão← Ketlen

64'

68'

71'

73'

74'

F. Gauto← F. Sandoval

79'

J. Ziff← Yaya

79'

Jane← Fabi Simões

84'

Mileninha← B. Aquino

90+2'

Bia Menezes

Santos

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Kleiton Lima

62'▲Tainá Maranhão←▼Ketlen

71'▲Ana Carla←▼Thaisinha

79'▲J. Ziff←▼Yaya

79'▲Jane←▼Fabi Simões

Santos W substitutes

MaranhãoCarlaZiffJaneSachsGomesStábileErikinhaJullyKellyValverdeTayla

Manager: Mauricio Salgado

57'▲Analuyza←▼Pati Llanos

57'▲Djeni←▼Tauane Zóio

57'▲Roberta←▼Eskerdinha

74'▲F. Gauto←▼F. Sandoval

84'▲Mileninha←▼B. Aquino

Internacional RS W substitutes

AnaluyzaDjeniRobertaGautoMileninhaBikCarlaTeixeiraMarzia