Internacional RS W 3–2 Santos W: Result & Stats

Internacional RS W

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Santos W

Millene 81', 64'

Belinha 47'

Cristiane 89'

Brena 31'

8/3/2022

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 14Estádio José Pinheiro Borda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Internacional RS W38%

×Draw24%

Santos W38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional RS WExpected goals in this matchSantos W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.51

Internacional RS W

1.50

Santos W

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 58 away

1.48

creates per match

1.83

1.19

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Internacional RS W

1.48

Santos W

1.83

allows per match

Internacional RS W

1.19

Santos W

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional RS W+0.00on par

Santos W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional RS W ↓

Santos W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Internacional RS W or draw

62%

Internacional RS W or Santos W

76%

Draw or Santos W

62%

Winning margin

Internacional RS W wins by 2+

18%

Santos W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Internacional RS W 1+ goals

78%

Internacional RS W 2+ goals

44%

Internacional RS W 3+ goals

19%

Santos W 1+ goals

78%

Santos W 2+ goals

44%

Santos W 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Internacional RS W (draw refunded)

50%

Santos W (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional RS W at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.19 · 64 matches

Santos W away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.52 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional RS W attack 1.48 + Santos W defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

Santos W attack 1.83 + Internacional RS W defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Internacional RS W scores more

38%

level

24%

Santos W scores more

38%

Internacional RS W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Internacional RS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Sorriso

31'

Brena

42'

Kaka

46'

Duda← Bia

46'

Fabiana← Lelê

47'

Belinha

56'

Júlia← Ana Carla

64'

Millene

70'

Maiara Niehues← Maiara Lisboa

71'

E. Stábile← Bia Menezes

71'

Thais Guedes← Fernandinha

72'

F. Simoes

79'

E. Stabile

79'

Evelyn Gadu← Jane

81'

87'

89'

90+2'

90+5'

G. de Oliveira

Internacional

Santos

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Mauricio Salgado

46'▲Duda←▼Bia

46'▲Fabiana←▼Lelê

70'▲Maiara Niehues←▼Maiara Lisboa

Internacional RS W substitutes

DudaFabianaNiehuesEllenPavarinZanellaJamilleTamaraBikCarlinhaDayanaAlves

Manager: Tatiele Silveira

56'▲Júlia←▼Ana Carla

71'▲E. Stábile←▼Bia Menezes

71'▲Thais Guedes←▼Fernandinha

79'▲Evelyn Gadu←▼Jane

Santos W substitutes

JúliaStábileGuedesGaduBeatrizErikaValverdeTayla

Brasileiro Women: Internacional RS W 3–2 Santos W

Internacional RS W beat Santos W 3-2 in Brasileiro Women on August 3, 2022.

Goals: Brena (31'), Belinha (47'), Millene (64', 81'), Cristiane (89').

The match was played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.

Internacional RS W vs Santos W — Brasileiro Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Brasileiro Women: Internacional RS W 3–2 Santos W