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Santos vs Notch — Eerste Divisie 2019

Santos
Santos
FT
2 – 4
Notch
Notch
1/21/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 2Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santos18%
×Draw17%
Notch65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos
1.43
Notch
2.77

Notch creates 94% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 58 away

creates per match

Santos
1.38
Notch
1.76

allows per match

Santos
3.79
Notch
1.48

finishing

Santos+0.00on par
Notch+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Notch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Santos or draw
35%
Santos or Notch
83%
Draw or Notch
82%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+
8%
Notch wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals
76%
Santos 2+ goals
42%
Santos 3+ goals
17%
Notch 1+ goals
94%
Notch 2+ goals
76%
Notch 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)
22%
Notch (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.38, concedes 3.79 · 29 matches

Notch away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.48 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.38 + Notch defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Notch attack 1.76 + Santos defence 3.79 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Santos scores more
18%
level
17%
Notch scores more
65%

Notch at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Notch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Santos 2–4 Notch

Notch beat Santos 4-2 in Eerste Divisie on January 21, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.