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Notch vs Santos — Eerste Divisie 2019

Notch
Notch
FT
4 – 1
Santos
Santos
4/2/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 6Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Notch71%
×Draw16%
Santos13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Notch
2.75
Santos
1.10

Notch creates 150% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 27 away

creates per match

Notch
1.76
Santos
0.93

allows per match

Notch
1.27
Santos
3.74

finishing

Notch+0.00on par
Santos+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notch ↓

Santos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Notch or draw
87%
Notch or Santos
84%
Draw or Santos
29%

Winning margin

Notch wins by 2+
50%
Santos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Notch 1+ goals
93%
Notch 2+ goals
75%
Notch 3+ goals
51%
Santos 1+ goals
67%
Santos 2+ goals
30%
Santos 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Notch (draw refunded)
85%
Santos (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notch at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Santos away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notch attack 1.76 + Santos defence 3.74 → ÷2 → 2.75

Santos attack 0.93 + Notch defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Notch scores more
71%
level
16%
Santos scores more
13%

Notch at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Notch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Notch 4 – 1 Santos

Notch beat Santos 4-1 in Eerste Divisie on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.